It cannot have escaped many that the Welsh and U.K. Governments’ drive to achieve net zero has produced a “gold rush” of proposals from developers keen to get in on the action while the legislative environment is supportive and commercial opportunities still exist.  This is particularly so in Wales where there has never been a de facto ban on onshore wind turbines as there was, until recently, in England.  But how many proposals are there currently, how much electricity will they produce, and how much more might be needed? From examining the database of the National Energy System Operator (NESO) we get a glimpse of what we might soon be seeing on our hilltops and fields.

Until recently NESO was a part of National Grid plc, and are the body who operate the electricity system.  They agree who can connect to the grid, when those generators are required to produce, and balance the supply of electricity day by day, hour by hour and minute by minute, such that supply always meets demand.  In 2024, at the request of Ofgem, the market regulator, they were separated from National Grid plc and are now a stand alone, state owned company.

Wales already generates about half of all electricity used in Wales (note 1) from renewables with the main sources being.

Installed capacity (MW)

Onshore wind

1,266

Offshore wind

726

Solar

1,179

Hydro

170

However far more electricity is still produced from fossil fuels at three main gas power stations.

Installed capacity (MW)

Pembroke

2,200

Connah’s Quay

1,400

Uskmouth

900

It is mainly due to these gas power stations that, overall, Wales generates twice the amount of electricity we consume.  In order for the U.K. Government to achieve the Clean Power 2030 objective the operation of these gas stations will have to be significantly reduced.

Long before  a developer applies for consent to build a wind or solar farm, they apply to NESO for a connection agreement.  By law, NESO have to grant an agreement, but exactly where or when the connection can be made is down to the transmission and/or distribution companies.  In Wales these are National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET), National Grid Electricity Distribution (NGED) in the south and Scottish Power Energy Networks (SPEN) in the north.  All connections to the transmission system, or which will have an impact on it, are recorded in the Transmission Entry Capacity Register (TEC Register) which is available online for anyone to access (note 2).

As of the end of January, there were a total of 149 agreements in place, recorded in the TEC Register, for new generating capacity, not yet built, to supply the grid (note 4).

Installed capacity (MW)

Offshore wind

7,100

Onshore wind

4,900

Solar with storage (BESS)

11,500

Storage (BESS)

10,600

Biomass

200

Tidal

400

There will also be many small developments that will connect directly to the distribution systems without having any impact on the transmission system, so this snapshot is less than the total.

There is no guarantee that all these connection agreements/developments will even progress as far as submitting a planning application, never mind get consent and actually be built, but in the current “gold rush” climate there is high likelihood that they will, and if they are could generate over 55 TWh of electricity a year.

Annual energy produced (TWh)

Offshore wind

31

Onshore wind

11

Solar with storage (BESS)

10

Storage (BESS)

0

Biomass

2

Tidal

1

Total

55

In Future Energy Scenarios 2024 (FES2024) NESO show that in 2050, when the whole of the U.K. has achieved net zero, Wales will be consuming 41 TWh per year of electricity (note 6), so the current “connection queue” already has 30% more capacity more than is necessary for net zero

However, FES2024 also shows that Wales will be generating 71 TWh per year, as Wales will remain a net exporter of electricity to the rest of GB.   A further 12 GW of capacity is anticipated in the Celtic Sea, and an undisclosed additional capacity can be anticipated in the Irish Sea.  The TEC Register already includes over 20 GW of capacity connecting in to Devon.  If only half of the 12 GW was classed as “Welsh generation” that would add an extra 26 TWh, giving a total of 81 TWh, well in excess of the NESO estimates.

The U.K. Government has published a Clean Power Action Plan (note 7) including estimates for onshore wind, solar and battery storage by region of GB (England & Wales and Scotland).  A breakdown between England and Wales is not given but includes the following anticipated installed capacity by 2030 .

Installed capacity (MW)

Onshore wind

8,600

Solar

44,100

Batteries

19,600

The connection queue in the TEC Register shows that Wales already has connection agreements in place for about quarter of the England and Wales solar allocation and over half the battery storage.

Discussion and conclusions

As has been said many times before, Wales has more than enough offshore wind potential to generate sufficient electricity to achieve net zero, as a nation, by 2050, and continue exporting electricity to other parts of GB.  Onshore wind is not needed at all for net zero.

However, as progress with offshore wind in Wales is painfully slow, unlike in England and Scotland, this is unlikely to come online to contribute to the U.K. Government’s Clean Power 2030 aspiration.  Onshore wind is thus being used to “fill the gap” with Wales providing over half of the England and Wales level of generation.  Wales is “ahead” in the onshore renewables race due to the de facto ban that was in place in England.

It could be argued that Wales is being exploited for onshore wind, and offshore wind was being deliberately held back, but this risks vanishing down political conspiracy rabbit holes, where there is little chance of a concrete conclusion.

The level of solar and battery storage being planned appears grossly excessive compared to the levels required by the Clean Power Action Plan, and solar is likewise not required at all for net zero, only to achieve the 2030 target

Whether by accident or design, Wales would seem to be doing a disproportionate amount of the heavy lifting to decarbonise England.

Notes:

1 – see Energy Generation in Wales (2022)

https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2023-11/energy-generation-in-wales-2022.pdf

2 – see 

Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) register | National Energy System Operator

3 – For the estimate of total annual generation the following approximate capacity factors have been assumed: offshore wind 50%, onshore wind 25%, solar 10%, biomass 85%, hydro 95%, tidal 25%.  Although BESS are classed as generators, like pumped hydro, they are not net generators, but storage systems

4 – the available data has been “lightly cleansed” to remove obvious rouge wdata records and includes generators in Wales that will connect to the grid in England

5 – where BESS is combined with a form of generation, without knowing the specific details of a proposal, which is often not yet available, it is difficult to know how much net generation will be produced.  As a conservative estimate, these are assumed to be BESS only, but means the estimate could be far lower than eventually transpires

6 – see Figure ES-02 page 100 of Future Energy Scenarios 2024

Future Energy Scenarios (FES) | National Energy System Operator

7 – see Table 6 page 16

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6776751e6a79200ddfa21b83/clean-power-2030-action-plan-connections-reform-annex.pdf

8 – Image credit Nation Cymru – A view of the Walters Group Pant y Wall windfarm in Bridgend.

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